India's Air Passenger Traffic Declines Again Following Air India Incident

In June 2025, India's air passenger traffic experienced a significant decline following the tragic Air India incident. After a brief recovery in May post the India-Pakistan conflict, new data reveals that average daily passengers dropped again. International travel has also been impacted, with Air India reducing its flights. The report highlights the challenges faced by the aviation sector amid rising crude oil prices, which could further complicate the situation. Read on to explore the details of these developments and their implications for air travel in India.

By Narendra Chaudhary Jun 20, 2025, 19:58 IST

Overview of Air Passenger Traffic Trends

Following a temporary increase in air passenger numbers in May 2025 after the cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan, new statistics from the Ministry of Civil Aviation indicate a fresh downturn in June. A report from a financial services firm highlights that, according to daily data from the Ministry, the average number of daily passengers had dropped on May 25 due to the geopolitical tensions. However, after the ceasefire was announced, domestic air travel returned to its usual levels. Unfortunately, the average daily passenger count fell again after the tragic Air India accident on June 12, 2025.

Passenger Statistics

The report reveals that the average daily passenger count in April was around 490,000. However, due to the geopolitical conflict, a decline was observed in May 2025. Before the Air India incident on June 12, the average daily passenger count had rebounded to 490,000, but it subsequently dropped to 460,000.

Impact on International Travel

International air travel has also seen a downturn since May 2025, primarily due to the ongoing India-Pakistan conflict. Recently, Air India announced a 15 percent reduction in its international flights utilizing wide-body aircraft for the upcoming weeks. This decision followed the tragic crash of Air India flight 171 in Ahmedabad, which resulted in the loss of 241 lives. The report states that Air India canceled 83 wide-body flights between June 12 and June 17, 2025. Daily data from the Ministry shows that the average number of international passengers fell from 118,000 in April to 113,000 in May, and further down to 102,000 in June.

Despite these challenges, the report from the financial services firm suggests that a decrease in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices could mitigate the decline in passenger demand observed in May and June. ATF prices have dropped by 8.2 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter of FY26, averaging Rs 86,000 per kiloliter compared to Rs 94,000 in the previous quarter. However, the recent geopolitical crisis has led to an increase in crude oil prices, which could alter the situation for airlines. As of June 19, 2025, crude oil prices have surged approximately 20 percent since the beginning of June, reaching USD 77 per barrel. This rise in prices may threaten earnings during the typically weaker second quarter.